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Did I write its some specific girl? No...
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Right now I am dating girl, its probably getting serious and big chances I will be around during Christmas, so pretty much option 2
Anyways
There is no universal gift for a girl. Alot of it depends on the girl and the nature of the long term relationship/dating relationship. Like length of dating and the situation. For eg, a girl you've been dating for 2 months and see each other once a week on dates and occasional sex, may see a gift at Xmas as too serious and may not even be planning to give you gift herself. A girl who you've been dating for 2 months and she's cooking for you every week and sleeping over, may find it bad if you don't give her a gift. And what constitutes a good gift depends on the girl too. A certain girl may think concert tickets for her favorite band that you remembered is the greatest gift, another girl may think a bracelet is a better one. Some girls prefer things you make, some prefer things you buy or activities and trips. If a girl is really sweet and in to you, a big gift could work. If she's not really the sweet type or things are rocky, a big gift can backfire. I highly doubt anyone can give you a universal idea, at least unless more details are given. I can tell you a bracelet is a good gift, but if the chick you're dating is the selfish "shit test" playing chick that could be bad. If she's one of those just dating you so she wont be alone chicks, that could backfire. I've given movie tickets, bracelet, a Kindle, a $5 pair of sunglasses and other stuff. Just a simple rule, don't invest more into a gift than she will for you.