This is an interesting one, I think it is definitely a confidence thing. Look at what you said:
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I can get great connections. I've gotten life stories. I've gotten details of her past that her best friend doesn't know. But any sign of physical interest? A return to the kino I use? Getting a kiss? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
You are definitely getting results, if you can get these emotional connections with girls then transferring to a physical one shouldn't be all that hard. My theory here is that you are being too passive. Like a battle in order to win you need to be the aggressor. I don't know enough details about how you operate (maybe you can fill me in) but you need to be the
MAN. Get the testosterone flowing, go to the gym, lift some weights, listen to angry music, walk around the house naked, etc.
This quote also caught my eye.
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I've tried Vin DiCarlo's Escalation Ladder. All this has gotten me absolutely nowhere. No flat out rejections but no escalation happening either. I can get great connections.
No rejections? I've been rejected tons of times. If you are willing to give up without a rejection then you must be doing something wrong. You need to push harder. Next time you feel like its going nowhere with a girl just push your advance to 100%. What if she rejects you? Who cares, it wasn't going to happen anyway. The only mistake that you can ever make is doing nothing.
I noticed you almost religiously follow routines. I never use them, partly because I found they often don't work and also because I haven't bothered learning any. You can't use someone else's tactics for your own game, it's impossible, MAKE YOUR OWN!
If what you are doing still fails then you've got to change. I'll tell you a little story about what happened me last night. There was this girl in college that I liked, It was the classic will I, won't I situation. Does she like me? Am I good enough? blah blah blah. Last night I was in the bar, it was 1.30 and packed. I was having a great night and was buzzing. Next thing I see the girl. I say "HI!!" and hug her. Instead of releasing her I held on. Some switch flicked in my head, instead of trying to chat her up again I just kissed her, and it worked. 30 seconds, that's all it took baby.
Lastly, I found another good way of building confidence is to make female friends. It will also give you access to their friends, a nice bonus. In my college I have maybe 3 close male friends, I have dozens of female ones with whom I am totally platonic and let me tell you, I don't do half bad.