PUA Theory: Causation vs Correlation and Implications



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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:18 am 
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Mental Masturbation 101.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:39 am 
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 2:05 pm 
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Good post!

Drowning accidents also correlates with ice-cream consumption. I for one dont mind people believing that because maybe they will give me their ice-creams to avoid drowning.

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 4:17 pm 
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PUA theories correlate with success, but they are not the cause of success

When thinking in causal one to one terms (like much of PUA), then answers are mutually exclusive. Either X or Y causes Z, but if X causes Z then it certainly isn't the result of Y. Of course, we could then extend to say X and Y causes Z, but A certainly doesn't. But if you take the approach that both X, Y, and A tell you different pieces of the story, you'll be on the right path to figuring out what works best for you. Humans are famously bad at thinking they know the cause of something by being fooled by various cognitive processes, which we will not delve into. Just realize that you don't understand things (about yourself or the world) as well as you'd like to believe. As a bit of extra advice, read up on this in your free time to interject humility into personal judgement and observations.
This is when experience comes in, patterns, and trends.
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We could ask ourselves, well should I workout, get a good job, or live in a shed? We'll, Bob over here lives in a shed and gets laid so the working out or job must not cause to get laid, so lets abandon those pursuits. Are you seeing the problem here? The shed may be irrelevant to the real reason Bob gets laid -- if we took Bob and made him 250 lbs, would the outcome change? Yes, but we can't know how much. If we made him a billionaire, would the outcome change? Yes, but we can't know how much. These anecdotes are simply observations correlated to the success of our case study. We do not know the actual cause.
Horrible example, but anyways how about you see that Bob over there, is lazy, full of excuse, and correlates success in game with money, nice, apt. and car to get a girl, instead of learning game. Why not learn game and continue his pursuits at the same time... Nice try... :Wink:
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But if we understand that these theories are correlations and that it'd be extremely hard for a bunch of PUA Scientists to figure out the true cause, then we realize the world doesn't have to be so black and white. If we ran a regression, we'd find tons of things (some inconsequential) seem to influence the outcome of attraction and/or seduction. We are in constant search for things with higher correlation, but that doesn't mean the theory is the cause increased success. They simple were observed occurring together.
All theories, methods, patterns all they do is give you higher % of success just like you just said.
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So as fun as it may be for people to jump on bandwagons and demonize the other side (who doesn't love a PUA sparring from time to time), be mindful that all these variables (theories) tell us something about the process we are seeking to master. And remember that just because when you ate ice cream and then suddenly a guy in a mask broke into your house, it did not happen because you took a bite of ice cream.
If you consistently see and experience for example in 15 years, lets say, 1000s of interactions among you, your friends, strangers: "excuse me you are hot, come here" that may work % maybe based on historical data 2% or less... Same dude, "hey, we do not know each other we do not have any fiends in common, so i decided to take the initiative an introduce myself, i am skills" probability of working probably 85 +%..... There is not universal method, women, countries, each individual is different, but there are some things based on "sample data" translation 10000 of approaches, patterns etc. that may increase probability...
pua is not only increasing success on getting laid, is be the best possible man you can be, getting a nice pimping car, nice place, and all the material bullshit in order to then get a girl, is not being the best man you can be, you are just being lazy, and skipping how to learn and attract women without resources, hobbit, dude, on those not have to be exclusive of the other, is living in a shed, and not working out being the best man you can be????? no right, as you said be HUMBLE and maybe learn something, from people that you think "are scumbags" but may teach you a thing or 2 if you keep an open mind...And please stop with this elaborated mental masturbation post, you talk to a girl like this she will run the other way..

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:03 pm 
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And why should we be changing our intelligence to get laid, isn't direct game all about expressing who I am instead of faking it? Or is it being me expressing who you think I should be to be successful? Notice the difference there -- from what I've seen, successful game occurs when you fully embody who you are. Unless you wear fuzzy hat and goggles, if that's your thing lol
I did not know people can change "intelligence" and i do not correlate "intelligence" with complex and unusual use of the English language, and graphics + mathematical formulas that make no sense, to make a simple point. Are you being the best you can be by using such elaborated vocabulary to communicate in a pick up forum, compose of mostly, trolls, social rejects, and young people? is that what you call direct game? I would call this lack of calibration... Is it expressing who you are living in a shed and gaining 250 pounds? or that is that you are idea of who bob should be? Finally can you please link the threat you are talking about, now i got curious...

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:08 pm 
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Hobbit is right, this kind of analyticis is what I spent four years studying to earn a degree. Just because event A and event B tend to occur together doesn't mean that one causes the other, whether in whole or even in part. The shed example was simple and true, a guy who gets laid living in a shed isn't necessarily having success with women because he lives in a shed, never works, and never exercises. The problem is that when people analyze a situation without knowledge of how correlation and causation actually work, they tend to fill in holes with their own logic while never acknowledging that some of their explanation was pure conjecture (that's guessing, fyi).

And the new problem with pickup logic, in particular, is that if you try to use deductive reasoning and experience together to make an argument, people who are infatuated with 60YOC will simply say "mental masturbation." Let's be clear, mental masturbation is when you make no sense as a means of appeasing your own ego. Thinking isn't mental masturbation :D

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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:14 pm 
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I did not know people can change "intelligence" and i do not correlate "intelligence" with complex and unusual use of the English language, and graphics + mathematical formulas that make no sense, to make a simple point.

I haven't presented anything complex, nor used anything above a high school grammar or vocabulary. I understand you don't think you are a great writer, but others were forced to acquire the skill.
Quote:
I would call this lack of calibration... Is it expressing who you are living in a shed and gaining 250 pounds? or that is that you are idea of who bob should be?
Flaming/Trolling is no longer tolerated on this board. Making the accusation that a poster is a 250lb person living in a shed named Bob is just that. If you'd like to behave in such a manner, I hear PUA Hate is a great board to let loose. This is your official warning. Incendiary comments like that are against forum rules.
Quote:
Finally can you please link the threat you are talking about, now i got curious...
I would have to search for it and I don't have the time right now. If you search this forum for "Garbage man" "Natural" and look at posts around 2 years old, you'd likely find it.
Quote:
Are you being the best you can be by using such elaborated vocabulary to communicate in a pick up forum
Don't mistake the loudest people in the room as representative of the room's population. I've been on this forum for an extremely long time and know what types of people who end up reading the material, even if they rarely/if ever post. I even discussed my target audience in the write up:
Quote:
A lot of this is due to the analytic type of person who frequents this forum, who is in search for a formula to success.
So please, keep comments constructive in this and all PUA Forum threads.

Thanks :)

Quote:
And the new problem with pickup logic, in particular, is that if you try to use deductive reasoning and experience together to make an argument, people who are infatuated with 60YOC will simply say "mental masturbation." Let's be clear, mental masturbation is when you make no sense as a means of appeasing your own ego. Thinking isn't mental masturbation
Yes and no. There is a place for 'mental masturbation' but the way it's used lately is a strawman to points that disagree with how one views the world and/or communication style. But be careful not to simply dismiss those 60yoc people, like they dismiss you :)
:shock: could not find the link is there any way you could post the link, you brought a subject of discussion about... Thanks in advance...Please remind me, never to engage in a discussion with you... thanks again!

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 2:33 pm 
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This must be the way intelligent people feel when they attempt to communicate with me.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 9:52 pm 
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This must be the way intelligent people feel when they attempt to communicate with me.
I dont understand what you mean. Talking to Hobbit or skills?

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2012 9:54 pm 
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well,

Anyone who's been in this for atleast 2 years should have noticed the whole hype of jumping from 'one true way' to another 'one true way'



This whole 'QUICK BURN YOUR BIBLE, this randomly succesfull looking guy has a different vision!' has been plagueing mankind for centuries.

Everyone who suffers from this pay attention, this will be the rest of your life:

"It's not me, it's the girl" --> "It's not me, it's mm" --> "I'm not bad at pick-up. Pick-up is just bullshit" --> "I wasn't a bad boyfriend, she's just not my soulmate" --> "women are worthless, I might try men" --> "being gay isn't working, I'll just stop"


This whole thread isn't as close to 'mental masturbation' as hyping about a vision. That shortly after seems very shallow.

Which seems to be the main task of most aspiring pick-up-artists.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 12:27 am 
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This must be the way intelligent people feel when they attempt to communicate with me.
I dont understand what you mean. Talking to Hobbit or skills?
Don't be silly Ezo. He's not talking about anyone but himself.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 1:00 am 
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This must be the way intelligent people feel when they attempt to communicate with me.
I dont understand what you mean. Talking to Hobbit or skills?
Don't be silly Ezo. He's not talking about anyone but himself.
i-am-38yrs-old-and-have-had-sex-with-ap ... 21411.html


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 27, 2012 2:26 am 
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I dont understand what you mean. Talking to Hobbit or skills?
Don't be silly Ezo. He's not talking about anyone but himself.
i-am-38yrs-old-and-have-had-sex-with-ap ... 21411.html
Lmao!


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