Yes, looks shouldn't be neglected. In my opinion, they compensate for game.
Game is what you do, and how you do it. The looks can be a plus. It doesn't mean at all that a supermodel guy can get any girl he wants, as he may have no game. However, a guy with bad looks can get (almost) any girl he wants if he has great game.
The beard doesn't change you game, only how you are perceived at first sight by uninformed women in the venue.
Anyhow, everybody gets lucky sometimes.
Since you mention poker, I'll make an analogy. When you play poker, you may be lucky, be served with American airlines (double As) and the flop has the two other As. You're lucky, and you will most probably win this round. At the same time, it's not because you're served with a 5 and a 3 that you're not going to win. If you know how to count probabilities easily, if you know how to bluff, you can win much more often then you are lucky.
When you go sarging, you're not always lucky, but having good game greatly helps you win, even when you're not lucky.
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